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Quantitative Risk Analysis

Advisian Downstream & Market Services has been helping its clients make the best possible strategic and tactical decisions by combining our broad, cross-disciplinary knowledge base of technology and the business environment with powerful quantitative tools such as Monte Carlo simulation models, decision analysis models, and real options models. We help our clients make the best decisions, despite high levels of uncertainty, at each level of the business development process.

The services we offer include:

  Investment Risk Analysis

Investment Risk Analysis [up] 

Making good capital investment decisions is becoming increasingly important. Advisian Downstream & Market Services helps clients critically evaluate the viability of investment options before any significant capital allocations are made. Our quantitative risk and decision analysis gives corporate decision-makers better estimates of potential project value. It produces higher value decisions, and helps our clients understand and manage all reasonable potential risks.

We apply state-of-the-art Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) methodology for the following applications:

  • Petroleum refinery, petrochemical facility, and biofuels facility upgrades, expansions and grassroots investment
  • Acquisition valuation
  • Tank farm facility, and logistics process investment and operations optimization
  • Reasearch and development (R&D) portfolio analysis and optimization
  • Optimal allocation of capital for sustaining and maintenance capital projects
  Technology Risk Analysis

With QRA, we can model most common uncertainty variables in terms of continuous or discrete value-probability distributions.

Technology Risk Analysis [up] 

Corporate decisions regarding technology selection and technology process development options require careful evaluation of multiple risks and alternative options. Our process technology experts and process performance and risk simulation modelers can help refiners and business developers understand:

  • Potential dollar value of new technology and the ramifications of risk exposure
  • If proposed mitigation plans are likely to reduce dollar risk to acceptable levels
  • Potentially significant effects of risk-issue correlation
  • If and where risk drivers can combine to create as-yet unidentified risks
  Risk Monitoring

Project Risk Management [up] 

Protecting the value of a project (coming in on time and on budget) involves dealing with the risk and uncertainty that will be associated with project delivery.

The role of project management is to assist in turning uncertain events and efforts into certain outcomes and promises. A primary process associated with project management should be that of risk identification and risk management.

Our project risk management process is based on five steps:

  • Risk management planning
  • Risk identification
  • Qualitative risk analysis/quantitative risk analysis
  • Risk response planning
  • Risk monitoring, control, and response
  Risk Management

By following these steps, we are able to manage the uncertainty inherent in projects.

Strategy Development and Decision Analysis Services [up] 

With our strategy development and decision analysis services, our goal is to capture all reasonably possible values of the assets or projects that the strategy is covering. We work closely with the client to build simple cash flow models of the corporate assets portfolio to help clients develop and refine a sound corporate strategy. This allows a valuable “What if?” analysis, as well as portfolio optimization and adjustment.   Strategy Development

Risk Analysis Courses and Training Services [up] 

We offer customized courses in:

  • General risk assessment and analysis
  • Investment risk model building and use
  • Technology performance risk model building and use
  • R&D portfolio optimization risk model building and use
  Risk Analysis Courses

Please contact us for a brochure with more in-depth information on our services in this area.

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